Bitcoin was quote on quote expected to see $7800. A few days ago Nouvive asked on Reddit, What is one of the fundamental drivers of Bitcoin?
There was a lot of impressive answers, however they failed to state the main importance: CBOE/CME Settlement dates.
Those who were longing with the expectation of $7800 and now liquidated failed to understand that CBOE is settling this coming friday.
The latest Commitment of traders report stated that on the August 14th, the vast majority of traders were Net Long. This figure is potentially net long
from $5900. Therefore stating that the lowest we can see over the next two days or 48 Hours in Crypto is $5900.
Nouvive believes that the price is considerably less, placing our bets at $6557 for the reasons stated below.
How did the Crypto Market perform?
Two Altcoins saw success:
- EOS: Vulnerability flaw failed to cause shorts.
- LSK: Mainnet saw a 30% Bounce
Unfortunately, none of the market jumped despite the news out of the Yahoo Finance base that they will support BTC, ETH and LTC sales on their Yahoo Finance page.
Where is BTC Going?
Bitcoin’s Market sentiment is still NET LONG, this is owed to the vast majority of traders positively inspired by the latest Yahoo Finance news.
Currently, Bitcoin on the higher time frames has rejected the low $7100 ranges, rejecting it close to 3 times.
This represents a SFP or Swing Failure Pattern, meaning there was not enough volume and support to see Bitcoin surpass the $7100 line.
This could be owed to sell-side pressure in preparation of the CBOE settlement dates for those Institutional traders who are net short.
The Bullish Argument is that Bitcoin could reverse at $6800 and try to retest the $7100, this has been given a 2 out of 5 Probability rate by Nouvive.
The bearish argument that has been given a 4 out of 5 Probability by Nouvive is that it will surpass the Golden Support at $6800, before falling past the 0.618 fib line on the chart below and reversing at $6550.
This is the most likely argument as there are a lot of buys in the $6300-500 region indicating Buy side support to stop a further drop below.
Nouvive has taken a negative sentiment towards Bitcoin, seeing it breach the golden support of $6800 before closing the day below $6600.