Institutions Bullish Trading Data Analysis
- The CFTC has released the commitment of traders
- We can now learn the positions of the institutions
- They are all slowly moving Net Long
- Data provided by Nouvive Research
Institutional Plays govern where the Crypto Market is going. What does the latest CFTC report on Commitment of Institutional traders illustrate?
What does CBOE data show us?
- CBOE will be settling on November 14th 2018
- Shorts have decreased, but slowed down in comparison over the past 4 Weeks – this could potentially be as a result of the dump that saw BTC go down by 2%.
- Longs make up 48.65% of the total positions with the rest governed by Shorts – illustrating that CBOE, the first settlement will see BTC slightly decease.
- Open interest in shorts still outweigh Longs by 2:1.
- This is interesting considering the non-reportable positions of Longs outweigh shorts by 3:1
- CBOE is 1 Contract = 1 Bitcoin of $6350.
It is seen as highly likely that the next time CBOE settles we will not see further than the current position as a result of the non-reportable positions outweighing Shorts, as well as shorts are slowly decreasing. This therefore illustrates that many institutional traders are deleveraging and therefore unloading their riskier positions. Showing Nouvive Research that the Risk/Reward Ratio is favourable for Longs.
What does CME Show us?
- CME will be settling their futures on December 1st 2018
- 1 Contract = 5 Bitcoins or $31750
- This is the first COT that has surprised the Nouvive Research team as longs have increased the highest to the tune of a 22% increase over the previous cot.
- Long Open interest is catching up to short open interests – again suprising the Nouvive Research Team.
- Commercial positions show a higher interest in shorts but with Longs very close to shorts.
- Non-reportable positions illustrate that Longs are favoured 1.7:1 – especially in open interest
What has Nouvive Research found?
One of our partners currently in the XBT/BTC Over the Counter trades have seen a higher amount of volume transacted over the past 2 weeks.
Another of our partners within the institutions have seen a wave of personal and commercial purchases in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
What does the Technical Analysis Say?
- There is a large volume gap between $7000-7200 – illustrating BTC will see this to fill that gap before the market decides what to do next.
- There are a lot of gaps within the chart especially within that position to be filled.
- OBV is at an all time low since August, illustrating that accumulation isn’t occurring – despite the sea of bullish news.
- BTC Currently trading below the 15MA, a move above $6500 would see it trading above – illustrating a bullish momentum.
- The last several days have shown a decrease in volume – perhaps a large move will occur.
- Heavy buy side volume and momentum illustrating that the market is currently favourable to the bulls.
- It can be heavily seen that between now and the middle of November we will not revisit lower than $6258
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