The past one month since the two CME/CBOE closures, we have seen both BTC and Ethereum flirt within two ranges. During this same period of time we have seen ALTs pop from August, with a few popping from June 15th Onwards at the earliest.
Nonetheless, there are always two possibilities in trading, a pop up or a pop down. Nouvive using Market Sentiment data collected on the Nouvive platform, we have deduced that Ethereum is in a rocky situation, ending the week below $200.
Prudent investors also have to understand that there is a high chance that a black swan event may happen with Tether again – seeing Ethereum reach Yearly Lows of $169 again if Tether and Bitfinex is indeed insolvent.
- Ethereum will re-set itself at the $202 area, potentially $201.50 as the flash crash happened yesterday.
- Gaps above $206 have to be filled
- The day has just started, ETH could continue its historical swings of a Higher High today, ending just above $208.
- Flash crash that occurred on the 17th October was just a stop run for a higher high.
- Gaps to be filled a $198.
- Yesterday, 17th October, a dump was rejected at $201.50, this could perhaps not be stopped today.
- T/A or Technical analysis has revealed that there is a double top on the higher time frames.
- RSI Stochastic has crossed over at its current position of $203, meaning that a dump to the 0.5 Fibonnaci at $198 is entirely possible.
- 0.5 Fibonacci is currently wear the double top of the 15th October was at $196-198.
- Decreasing volume, volume that does exist is heavy sell side pressure.
- Lower hourly time frames illustrates a triple top.
Provided by Trading View
All of these collated explains that we will probabilistic speaking see a Dump fo Ethereum to between $196-198, especially as a result of the technical analysis that is heavily in their favour. No F/A can be explained for a Pump. Two notable events – Tether/Bitfinex fear & Uncertainty could spark a dump.
If Ethereum does not dump past $201.50, get ready for a reload to $207, always increasing stops in profits with a first stop loss at $200.65.
A prudent investor should short from between $203.85 to $204.65, with a stop loss at $205.20, increasing stop losses in profit and a take profit at $196 for the first TP and a second TP at $191.
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