Thursday Observations with Bitcoin Call:
Bitcoin, you didn’t fall by more than 4% on news that not one, but three ETF’s were rejected. The last time we saw a Bitcoin ETF rejected, we did see the market fall as much as 20%, with Bitcoin falling close to $1000.
The overall market view was that the three out of eight ETFs would be rejected. What came as suprising is that two of the ETFs, whose deadlines were in late September, were rejected on the same day as the PRO Shares.
The market didn’t fall more than 4% as a result of the market already pricing in a denial that had been leaked by sources close to the situation.
That also explains why Shorts are at their all time high.
A bullish move upwards would see, all these shorts covering like in June, where we saw a $1600 position upwards, this time we could see the late $8800’s, representing a close to 20% move.
However, this wouldn’t be the case until the end of August as a result of the settlement date for CBOE, every time a settlement occurs, we do see the market close to the low $6000’s. That also being said, the Commitment of traders is illustrating that a lot of institutional investors are still shorting Bitcoin, with only 30% of them Longing from $6800.
Based on this: Where is Bitcoin Going Today?
Short from the 0.618 Fib Line, a local resistance area with a lot of shorts in the same area. This is where everyone is shorting, therefore it would act as a tight resistance level.
There is a lot of positive sentiment towards Bitcoin, however the technical indiciators illustrate there are a lot of individuals shorting the bitcoin too.
We could see Bitcoin longed all the way to $6600, before falling from there – That is the most bullish scenario that could be seen.
The actual situation will be a short from the 0.618 line all the way to $6280, this might not be able to hold, there will definitely be a bounce from the $6160, as there is a large buy wall in that area.
The RSI Stochastic is illustrating that Bitcoin is heavily overbought, moreover, this coincides with the technical indicator that illustrates that this is a rising wedge. The 55MA and 90MA will act as a resistance.